Royal Ascot - Day 1

Monday, June 15, 2020

Although being held behind closed doors, Royal Ascot goes ahead this year, and we have selections in each of the first 6 races on Tuesday 16th June. 

 

1.15 Buckingham Palace Stakes

It pays to be held up over the straight track at Ascot and with a full field of 24, you can be guaranteed they'll be going quick up front. Our UKRF odds-line has Charlie Appleby's First Contact as the 8/1 favourite, and whilst representing a decent bet, the selection goes to Mark Johnston's BLOWN BY WIND from Stall 1. As the form guides highlight, the pace is likely to come from Gifted Master in stall 5, which should give the Johnston runner plenty of pace to aim at. A type that traditionally saves his challenge until relatively late he can build on his Newmarket success last time out. 

 

1.50 Queen Anne Stakes

A strong field here headlined by the Aiden O Brien trained Circus Maximus who bids to get back to winning ways after his third in the Breeders Cup Mile. He ran a career best UKRF speed figure of 110 that day which is strong and puts him in with a solid claim here. However, at a better price we side with Andrew Balding's FOX CHAIRMAN. A winner at Newbury last July on only his 4th start, running to a UKRF speed figure of 111, he comes here with strong claims. He encountered trouble in running on his only Ascot start, but showed no issues with the track and is a good price to grab Group 1 glory here for in form trainer Andrew Balding. 

 

2.25 Ribblesdale Stakes

Trefoil impressed me on debut back in October last year, and ran with credit last week when stepping up to 10f for the first time. That will have put her right for this, and her UKRF figure of 103 is better than anything else achieved by this field. A combination of class and fitness puts her in with a great shout at a good price. 

 

3.00 King Edward VII Stakes

Our UKRF odds line has outsider Sound of Cannons in at just over 8/1, and we can't ignore him at current odds of around 40/1. By Nathaniel, this trip of 12f will be right up his street, and he will come on for his run behind Derby hopeful English King last time out. Deemed good enough to travel to France for the Criterium de Saint Cloud, he's obviously well thought of and in a cagey race could be overpriced. 

 

3.35 King's Stand

Bataash will clearly be tough to beat here, but there is value in the each way market with LIBERTY BEACH for John Quinn. The 3 year old filly gets all the allowances here she ran a career best UKRF rating last time out of 98. Whilst that wouldn't be good enough to trouble a couple of these at their peak's, she is improving and the weight allowance will make a significant difference. She's only a few pounds behind these on UKRF speed ratings, and if she can run to form, she'll be there or thereabouts

 

4.10 Duke of Cambridge Stakes

Jubiloso and Lavender's Blue top the UKRF average ratings on 97 and 96 respectively and have 4 or 5 lbs in hand of the field based on those. Sir Michael Stoute's filly Jubiloso disappointed last time out at Sandown but ran some strong races behind Watch Me (101) and Billesdon Brook (103). Repeats of those efforts would see her hard to beat. 

 

BET ADVICE

1.15 1pt E/W BLOWN BY WIND @ BFSP (save 0.5pt WIN FIRST CONTACT @ BFSP)

1.50 2pt WIN FOX CHAIRMAN @ 15/2 Coral

2.25 1pt WIN TREFOIL @ 11/2 Ladbrokes

3.00 0.5pt E/W SOUND OF CANNON @ BFSP

3.35 2pt E/W LIBERTY BEACH @ 8/1

4.10 2pt WIN JUBILOSO @ 11/4 (save 0.5pt WIN LAVENDERS BLUE @ 6/1 Bet365)

 

Total Stake: 13 pts