Royal Ascot - Day 4

Friday, June 19, 2020

Royal Ascot - Day 4 Selections

 

1.15 Palace of Holyroodhouse Handicap

The UKRF odds-line gives some decent value bets here, and we are siding with MIGHTY SPIRIT and LAMBETH WALK. The former should be 9.60 on our odds line ran an excellent race in the Queen Mary here last year, and having struggled in smaller fields later on last season, can appreciate the return to a strong pace today and is well drawn. A price of around 17.0 at the time of writing is fair. Lambeth Walk goes for Archie Watson and gets the second vote at a larger price. Priced up at 17.6 on our UKRF odds line, the 50.0+ currently available is generous for this filly who also ran well in the Queen Mary last year finishing 10th. She failed to get off the mark in decent company thereafter, but a handicap mark of 93 looks workable and her price looks generous. 

 

1.50 Albany Stakes

On UKRF speed figures, there is very little between MOTHER EARTH and Dandalla. Our preference is for the former, who is top rated having run a UKRF figure of 90 on debut and like all of Aiden O Brien's 2 year olds will come on for that run. That gives her a few pounds to play with, and she deserves her place at the head of the market. Odds of around 4.8 are fair. 

 

3.00 Hardwicke Stakes

It is hard to see past Anthony Van Dyke here for Aiden O Brien but he is short enough at the head of the market and we side with the horse who looks value on UKRF's odds line. FANNY LOGAN is priced up at 11.0 currently - more than double the UKRF estimate of 5.5 and this is enough to tempt us in to an each way play. The 4 year old Sea the Stars filly showed she could mix it at the top level when finishing a respectable 4th in the Breeders Cup Fillies and Mares turf in November and she can put it up to last year's Derby winner Anthony Van Dyke. She'll come on for her Newcastle seasonal debut, and goes for the top pairing of John Gosden and Frankie Dettori. 

 

4.10 Queen's Vase

AL DABARAN is the selection for us today in the 1m 6f Queens Vase. The 3 year old Dubawi colt takes a big step up in trip from 9f to 14f, but he will enjoy the conditions and has solid form in the book. Dubawi's offspring go very well here at Ascot and Al Dabaran is priced fairly to make him worth a small bet. 

 

4.40 Duke of Edinburgh Stakes

We round off the card with a competitive handicap over 1m 4f and DUBAI FUTURE looks a big each way price. Priced up at 12.6 on the UKRF odds line, his current price of 41.0 looks very big for the Godolphin operation. This Dubawi colt was successful at Kempton over this trip at the end of last season and earned himself a handicap mark of 92. He has gone from strength to strength over the winter at Meydan, ultimately progressing to finish runner up in a Group 3 over 14f. That suggests he will appreciate the stiff Ascot finish here, and Godolphin's record in these type of races is very strong. 

 

BET ADVICE

1.15 MIGHT SPIRIT & LAMBETH WALK 1PT E/W @ BFSP

1.50 MOTHER EARTH 2 PTS E/W @ BFSP

3.00 FANNY LOGAN 1 PT E/W @ BFSP

4.10 AL DABARAN 2 PTS WIN @ BFSP

4.40 DUBAI FUTURE 1 PT E/W @ BFSP